DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/17 11:55
All Grains Higher at Midday
Soybeans lead active trade at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 55 higher. The dollar
index is 20 lower. Interest rate products are mostly firmer. Energies are
weaker with crude 0.30 lower. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals
are mixed with gold 1.80 lower.
Corn trade is 1 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade scoring new highs
before fading a little bit into the a.m. session with spreads weakening. The
forecast looks to continue the recent pattern into the first part of the week,
before potential pattern changes into the end of the month. Ethanol margins
will remain tight, with the blenders being squeezed more, with ethanol futures
trying to follow corn to a bigger extent with flat trade this a.m. The weekly
export inspections were only at 653,875 metric tons. The weekly crop progress
is expected to show planting near complete depending on how many acres are
expected to be prevented planting or go to beans or another crop since it is so
late. Crop ratings are expected to be steady to down with emergence getting
close to the average pace. On the July nearby chart, support is the 10-day at
$4.30, with the new high printed last night at $4.64 resistance. With the new
high today, then more than a dime correction, and a light rebound at this
juncture, it will be an important close today for the chart.
Soybean trade is 12 to 15 cents higher at midday with trade moving back
towards the top end of the contract range. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher, and
oil up 40 to 50 points. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with meal
just above $325. World export demand remains slow, and the South American
currencies cheap. Fieldwork will likely be slowed again in many areas with more
insurance days passing for soybeans. Weekly export inspections were inline at
675,302 metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show emergence passed 50%,
giving us a condition report, with planting passing the two-thirds complete
mark. The July chart support is the 100-day at $8.95, with next resistance the
upper Bollinger Band at $9.14.
Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents higher with trade following row crops higher as
HRW harvest expands on the Plains. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is swinging
back to Kansas City overnight, getting back to 59 cents so far before relaxing
again. The heavy rains are slated more for the north and east parts of the belt
while harvest should build elsewhere, with maturity still lagging overall. The
dollar moved back above 97 on the index as well. Black Sea area weather remains
mixed. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the
bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may increase feeding on that front.
Weekly export inspections were softer at 375,365 metric tons. Weekly crop
progress will likely show steady conditions for winter and spring wheat, with
winter harvest remaining behind pace, and spring wheat emergence close to
normal. On the July Kansas City chart, support is the 100-day at $4.55. then
the 10-day at 4.62, with the upper Bollinger Band at $4.92 as resistance.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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